A zone in the Gulf has been identified for possible tropical development next week

A zone in the Gulf has been identified for possible tropical development next week


FACTORED IN. NOT HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS IDENTIFIED THIS AREA. THIS IS THE LATEST UPDATE. I WILL SEE IF THIS HAS BUMPED UP THE PERCENTAGES, BUT NOW IT IS FOR THE POSSIBILITY. I WILL SHOW YOU THE HIGH RISK FORECAST BRINGS THIS CLUSTER OF STORMS DOWN, THE SAME FORECAST YOU SAW JUST A WIDER VIEW, AND IT SHOWS THE CIRCULATION HERE. IT IS IN LINE WITH THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER WHO SAID THAT THERE IS THAT POTENTIAL, BUT YOU SEE A LOT OF CONVECTION AND NOT A LOT OF ORGANIZATION. IF SOMETHING IS TO FORM IT WILL BE THE LOW-END VARIETY AND JUST OUTSIDE OF OUR REGION. IT ALSO LOOKS TO BE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST OF LOUISIANA. THIS INVEST CLUSTER OF STORMS HAS A GREATER PROBABILITY OF DEVELOPING. THE TIMING ON THESE IS MONDAY AND TUESDAY FOR TH

An area in the Gulf of Mexico identified for possible tropical development next week

A cluster of storms forecast to drop through Louisiana on Sunday could develop into a weak tropical disturbance next week

Early Saturday morning, the National Hurricane Center identified a zone just off the Gulf Coast from Louisiana to Texas that has a 20% chance of possible tropical development early next week.A cluster of storms that is forecast to move north to south through our region on Sunday could end up just off our coast on Monday, evolving into an area of ​​low pressure. Based on the latest data trends, this area of ​​storm activity could strengthen into an organized area of ​​low pressure where a combination of favorable atmospheric and ocean conditions could allow it to become tropical in nature. As of right now, there is a lack of Saharan dust over the Gulf, water temperatures are well into the mid-80s, while atmospheric humidity is high enough, and wind shear is forecast to be low enough to aid in potential development. Both of our best global resolution computer forecasts, the GFS and the ECMWF, are in pretty good agreement in timing and placement for possible development. BUT the most significant takeaway should be that most data show that IF development is to occur, this system should remain very weak and will develop and move well away from Southeast Louisiana.As with any Gulf potential, we’ll stay on top of all computer forecasts and NHC outlooks to give you the latest updates.

Early Saturday morning, the National Hurricane Center identified a zone just off the Gulf Coast from Louisiana to Texas that has a 20% chance of possible tropical development early next week.

A cluster of storms that is forecast to move north to south through our region on Sunday could end up just off our coast on Monday, evolving into an area of ​​low pressure.

Based on the latest data trends, this area of ​​storm activity could strengthen into an organized area of ​​low pressure where a combination of favorable atmospheric and ocean conditions could allow it to become tropical in nature. As of right now, there is a lack of Saharan dust over the Gulf, water temperatures are well into the mid-80s, while atmospheric humidity is high enough, and wind shear is forecast to be low enough to aid in potential development.

Both of our best global resolution computer forecasts, the GFS and the ECMWF, are in pretty good agreement in timing and placement for possible development. AIM the most significant takeaway should be that most data show that IF development is to occur, this system should remain very weak and will develop and move well away from Southeast Louisiana.

As with any Gulf potential, we’ll stay on top of all computer forecasts and NHC outlooks to give you the latest updates.

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